000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N86W TO 10N100W TO 09N120W TO 09N130W TO 
10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
A LARGE WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF 
32N122W AND IS MOVING S 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 132W. THE CIRCULATION 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SW ARIZONA IN 48 HOURS. A WESTERLY JET 
STREAM ALOFT IS CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS STRETCHING THROUGH 
28N140W TO 25N125W TO NEAR 28N110W. WINDS ARE STRONGEST BETWEEN 
120W AND 128W WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP 
TO 90 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED S OF THE JET TO 
15N W OF 130W. TO THE SOUTH A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N110W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE S OF ABOUT 20N TO THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS 
LOCATED ALONG 140W FROM 11N TO 16N. IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N 
W OF 126W WINDS ARE NE TO E WINDS 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE 
SWELL. IN THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W WINDS ARE NW 
TO N WINDS 20 KT WITH SEAS 8 FT. IN ABOUT 42 HOURS S TO SW WINDS 
ARE FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT OVER 
THE FAR NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

E OF 105W...
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED S OF 10N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 
105W INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. 
  
$$
CAB