000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 08N84W TO 09N120W TO 10N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 92W TO 98W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 16N139W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...
SHARP LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH BASIN FROM 
32N105W TO ILL-DEFINED CYCLONE AT 13N113W THEN CONTINUE TO 
00N119W.  WIDE SWATH OF DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 10 DEG OF TROUGH 
AXIS.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 12N130W HAS KEPT GOOD 
OUTFLOW OVER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 129W BUT MOISTURE FLOW 
HAS BEEN CUT OFF BY ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.  SURFACE 
TROUGH EXPECTED TO RIDE INTO THE SUNSET W OF 140W WITHIN 24-36 
HRS.  

SECOND ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ADVECTS ENORMOUS 
AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO BASIN E OF 98W WITH HEALTHY 
SURFACE TROUGH JUST N OF PANAMA EXTENDING INTO SE CORNER OF E 
PAC REINFORCING SW MONSOONAL FLOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE 
UPPER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION 
BUT TOPOGRAPHY MIGHT TAKE ITS TOLL IN TROPICAL ORGANIZATION OF 
SYSTEM.  
  
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
FRESH N GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND 12 
HRS AS FORCING SOURCE OVER GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED AWAY.  
    
$$
WALLY BARNES