000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162117
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS 09N84W TO 08N100W TO 10N120W TO 09N132W TO 12N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N86W TO 09N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A 09N104W TO 07N108W LINE AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
11.5N126.5W TO 08N134W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS MOST 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 120W AND IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY 
OF 15N125W. WESTERLY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALOFT ARE IN THE 35 
TO 50 KT RANGE N OF ABOUT 22N BETWEEN 118W AND 140W. A MIDDLE/ 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 29N W OF 133W AND IS DIGGING 
ESE ABOUT 20 KT. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY ESE 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT IS LOCATED 
THROUGH 33N138W TO BEYOND 30N144W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/ 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND IS MOVING E ABOUT 15 KT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS 
LOCATED ALONG 110W N OF 18N. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED 
ALONG 126W FROM 07N TO 13N. 

E OF 105W...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA N OF 08N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 105W. A GALE WARNING IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE IN SIX HOURS. 
    
$$
CAB