000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS 07N78W TO 08.5N88W TO 06.5N100W TO 10N122W TO 09N130W TO 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W 
TO 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS MOST 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 120W AND IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY 
OF 15N125W. WESTERLY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALOFT ARE IN THE 35 
TO 50 KT RANGE N OF ABOUT 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. A 
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 30N W OF 135W AND IS 
DIGGING SE ABOUT 20 KT. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY 
ESE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT IS LOCATED 
THROUGH 34N139W TO BEYOND 30N144W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A 
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE ENTIRE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IS MOVING E 15 TO 20 KT. THE TROUGH 
AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 112W N OF 18N. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS 
LOCATED ALONG 139W FROM 10N TO 18N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS 
LOCATED ALONG 125W FROM 07N TO 13N. 

E OF 105W...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA N OF 08N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. A GALE WARNING IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE IN SIX HOURS. OVER 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE TO E WINDS ARE 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 
8 FT. 
    
$$
CAB