000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 08N81W TO 07N100W TO 10N121W TO 09N130W TO 12N14W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E 
OF 87W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 
87W TO 105W AND FROM 122W TO 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM SE ARIZONA TO 14N107W TO 01N114W. 
BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 11N126W HAS RIDGE EXTEND OVER 
ENTIRE AREA W OF 115W WHILE ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE NE ON ITS NW QUADRANT.  STABLE AIR MASS PRECLUDES ANY 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WITH SUCH MOISTURE.

SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF 100W BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO E 
PAC N OF 05N E OF 100W WITH MONSOONAL TROUGH PROMPTING SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ.

SURFACE...
WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1013 MB AT 09N125W PRESSES GRADIENT IN ITS 
NW QUADRANT WITH FRESH NE BREEZE WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER.  LOW 
PRES WEAKENS FURTHER WITHIN 24 HRS AND BREEZE BECOMES GENTLE TO 
MODERATE.  

MODERATE SW LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVES INTO GULF OF PANAMA AS WEAK 
LOW PRES DEVELOPS JUST N OF COSTA RICA.  MODEL GUIDANCE 
STRENGTHEN LOW PRES WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH AND 
BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS REMAIN AT GALE FORCE BUT LOSE ITS 
SOURCE OF N WINDS WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS AS HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF 
MEXICO SHIFTS E CUTTING OFF WIND FLOW.  N WINDS REMAIN NEAR 20 
KT FOR ANOTHER 12 HRS AFTER THAT. 
    
$$
WALLY BARNES