000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N81W TO 07N103W TO 09N110W TO 08N118W TO A
1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N122W TO 08N128W TO 10N136W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E 
OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 
127W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 31N112W MOVING SLOWLY W AND 
WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
SSE TO A NEUTRAL POINT NEAR 14N108W THEN SW TO 00N115W. BROAD 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N126W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA...SPREADING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ITCZ DEBRIS
NORTHWARD TO AN AREA FROM 07N TO N OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.

SURFACE... 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 15-20 KT WINDS IN NE QUADRANT OF A LOW 
NEAR 10N123W ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS 
LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED 12N136W TO 15N138W TO 19N137W PRODUCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 133W AND 
138W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST N OF THE TROUGH TIGHTENS JUST 
ENOUGH FOR 15-20 KT NE TRADES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W 
OUT OF AREA WITHIN 24 HRS. 

GAP WINDS...
IXTEPEC NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAD
35 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 1800 TO 0200 UTC...AN INDICATION THAT 
STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14N95.5W. EXPECT 
PEAK WINDS TO DROP TO AROUND 45 KT LATER TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE 
TO BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

WIND DIRECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED N... EFFECTIVELY 
SHUTTING DOWN GAP WINDS IN PAPAGAYO.
    
$$
MUNDELL