000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 08N81W TO 09N95W TO 07N110W TO 
09N125W TO 09N130W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA 
RICA FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 89W AND 100W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 
127W AND 134W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 133W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N125W IS OVER A SURFACE 
TROUGH. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS FROM 07N TO 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. FURTHER E...A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF THE EQUATOR TO 
20N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. ELSEWHERE...A SMALL SHORTWAVE CYCLONE 
IS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N113W WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING E. 

AT THE SURFACE... 
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST NW OF AREA FROM 34N135W TO 32N140W 
30N145W NOT EFFECTING THE BASIN. WEAK TROUGH IS FURTHER S FROM 
17N139W TO 10N136W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
15N TO 19N BETWEEN 132W AND 139W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST N 
OF THE TROUGH TIGHTENS JUST ENOUGH TO PROMPT FRESH NE TRADES. 
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W OUT OF AREA WITHIN 24 HRS. 

GAP WINDS...
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N94W TO 13N95W. STORM FORCE N TO NE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECREASE TO GALE 
FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...20 KT NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N86W TO 
09.5N88W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.
    
$$
FORMOSA