000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 08N83W TO 07N115W TO 09N122W TO 
13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 08N TO 
09N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W... FROM 07N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W... AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 138W 
AND 142W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N125W IS OVER A SURFACE 
TROUGH. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS FROM 07N TO 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. FURTHER E...A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF THE EQUATOR TO 
20N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. ELSEWHERE...A SMALL SHORTWAVE CYCLONE 
IS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N114W WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING E. 

AT THE SURFACE... 
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST NW OF AREA FROM 34N135W TO 32N140W 
30N145W NOT EFFECTING THE BASIN. WEAK TROUGH IS FURTHER S FROM 
18N134W TO 11N137W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST N 
OF THE TROUGH TIGHTENS JUST ENOUGH TO PROMPT FRESH NE TRADES. 
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W OUT OF AREA WITHIN 24 HRS. 

GAP WINDS...
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N94W TO 13N95W. STORM FORCE N TO NE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECREASE TO GALE 
FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...20 KT NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N86W TO 
09.5N88W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.
    
$$
FORMOSA