000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151010
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 08N83W TO 06N108W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES AT 08N120W TO 
12N134W TO 12N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N100W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS W OF 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 30N113W MOVE NE AWAY FROM AREA.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND 
S TO 16N106W TO SECOND CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 08N108W THEN CONTINUE 
TO 00N110W.  BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 12N125W CONTROL WIND 
FLOW OVER E PAC W OF TROUGH AND ADVECTS CONVECTIVE MOISTURE 
DEBRIS FROM ITCZ AND LOW PRES 1012 MB NEAR 09N120W.  MOISTURE 
PLUME MERGES WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE W OF 140W AND 
ADVECTS NE WITH LITTLE EFFECT OVER FORECAST WATERS AS STABLE AIR 
MASS SITS OVER MOST E PAC.   

AT THE SURFACE... 
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT JUST NW OF AREA MOVES E WITH LITTLE OR NO 
EFFECT ON BASIN.  WEAK TROUGH FROM 12N140W TO 16N133W SQUEEZE 
PRES GRADIENT ENOUGH TO PROMPT FRESH NE TRADES WITHIN 120 NM W 
OF AXIS.  TROUGH EXPECTED TO DRIFT W OUT OF AREA WITHIN 24 HRS. 
WEAK LOW PRES 1012 MB MOVE W-NW REACH 140W WITHIN 48 HRS. 

GAP WINDS...
STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KT REPORTED IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
SUPPORT KEEPING WARNING FOR 24 HRS THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE.  
WINDS BECOME BELOW 35 KTS WITHIN 48 HRS BUT STRONG BREEZE REMAIN 
FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WEAK TROUGH 
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES OVER LAND.  ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE 
INTENSIFIES TROUGH BUT MOVES IT AWAY FROM NICARAGUA COAST BEYOND 
FORECAST PERIOD. 
    
$$
WALLY BARNES