000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 09N86W TO 07N116W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N119W TO 
11N128W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N114W. BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N124W 
SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER A WIDE 
SWATH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 07N TO 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 
140W. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS 
FROM 20N105W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W.   

SURFACE... 
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE AREA FROM 35N135W TO 
31N145W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF OLD MEXICO
FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 31N112W TO 21N105W. ITCZ IS PARTICULARLY 
ACTIVE E OF 98W ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO THE CARIBBEAN 
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WINDS 15 KT OR LESS 
ACROSS ALL THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXCEPT FOR GAP WINDS NOTED BELOW.

GAP WINDS...
STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 13N96.5W. CRUISE 
SHIP SEA PRINCESS CALL SIGN ZCBU3 REPORTED 45 KT WINDS AND 11 FT 
SEAS AT 0100 UTC NEAR 15.8N 94.9W. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS THEN DIMINISHING TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN ABOUT
24 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT.

20 KT NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N86W TO 10N90W. THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
    
$$
MUNDELL