000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE....

NONE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 
06N101W TO 06N114W TO 10N127W TO 08N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 
97W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 
128W.  

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11N122W IS OVER THE SURFACE 
TROUGH. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS FROM 07N TO 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. FURTHER E...A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF THE EQUATOR TO 
20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. ELSEWHERE...A SMALL SHORTWAVE CYCLONE 
IS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N115W WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING E. 
ANOTHER SMALL SHORTWAVE CYCLONE IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 
31N130W WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE.   

ON THE SURFACE... 
A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA AT 39N154W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE AREA ALONG 35N136W 31N140W 
30N150W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N115W TO 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N112W. IN THE TROPICS...THE ITCZ 
IS ACTIVE E OF 97W TO COLOMBIA...AND W OF 115W TO 128W. SEE 
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 17N131W TO 15N134W 
11N134W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 128W AND 138W. 

GAP WINDS...
A STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N94.5W TO 13N96.5W. STORM FORCE N TO 
NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SLIGHTLY 
DECREASE TO GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...20 KT NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N86W TO 
10N90W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.
    
$$
FORMOSA