000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOW...

.1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N132W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO 
NEAR 17N129W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N 
TO 18N BETWEEN 127W AND 131W. THE LOW HAS PULLED AWAY FROM THE 
ITCZ AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING MOVING NW FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE....

NONE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO  
09N90W TO 06N100W TO 10N123W TO 07N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA 
FROM 03N TO 8N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 
124W AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11N122W IS OVER THE SURFACE 
LOW AT 13N132W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS FROM 07N TO 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. FURTHER E...A 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF THE 
EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. ELSEWHERE...A SMALL 
SHORTWAVE CYCLONE IS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N115W WITH 
SUBSIDENCE MOVING E. ANOTHER SMALL SHORTWAVE CYCLONE IS W OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N130W WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE.   

ON THE SURFACE... 
A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA AT 39N141W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE AREA ALONG 35N135W 32N140W 
30N150W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N115W TO 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N112W. IN THE TROPICS...THE ITCZ 
IS ACTIVE E OF 94W TO COLOMBIA...AND W OF 114W TO 132W. SEE 
ABOVE. 

GAP WINDS...
A STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N94.5W TO 13N96.5W. STORM FORCE N TO 
NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SLIGHTLY 
DECREASE TO GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...20 KT NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N86W TO 
10N90W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.
    
$$
FORMOSA