000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140952 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU OCT 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL LOW... .LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 13.5N131W IS ESTIMATED AT 1012 MB AND HAS TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO NEAR 19N128W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INTERMITTENT WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW HAS PULLED AWAY FROM THE ITCZ AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING MOVING NW TO NEAR 15N132W TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN FRI NIGHT TO AN OPEN TROUGH. ...TROPICAL WAVE.... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 06N ALONG 91W MOVING W AT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 08N92W AND E OF THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N90W. ...THE ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 07N109W TO 11N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF 08N117W AND WITHIN AREA FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES AT CENTERED AT 28N117W AND AT 28N133W WITH DRY UPPER AIR NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF EACH CENTER. A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SE FROM THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 28N117W THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES CENTERED AT 12N107W AND 05N105W. THIS N TO S TROUGH SEPARATES THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 13N124W WITH ITS UPPER RIDGE CRESTING ALONG 30N140W TO 22N113W BUT INTERRUPTED BY THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 28N113W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AT 13.5N131W...AND IN THE AREA FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS...AND UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM ITCZ CONVECTION WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...MERGE UNDER THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY FROM 06N TO 23N BETWEEN 120W AND 148W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTED THROUGH THE RIDGE AND INTO THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 28N117W...WITH A TROPICAL PLUME NOTED 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N120W TO 22N108W TO OVER NE OLD MEXICO AT 28N100W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS N AND NW ACROSS SW ARIZONA ANS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER E...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR HAITI HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 11N100W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 07N E OF 96W AND IS STREAMING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER BUT IS BRIDGED BY A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N142W TO 13N110W. SW FLOW PULSING TO 20 KT OVER WATERS BETWEEN 86W AND 79W WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BRIEFLY FRI OVER WATERS S OF 07N BETWEEN 100W AND 78W. GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED TO MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH PER CRUISE SHIP NORWEGIAN STAR STEAMING E ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 14N AND 15N. THE RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS BUT WILL ASSUME SHIP REPORT IS GROUND TRUTH AND THUS POSTED STORM WARNING THROUGH 24 HOURS. TWEAKED 00 UTC GRID AND GRAPHIC PACKAGE FOR WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO WELL ABOVE GFS/MWW3...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM WINDS...FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY TONED DOWN GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTING CYCLONE FORMATION W OF GULF PAPAGAYO IN MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AND SUGGEST JUST A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. EXPECT TO SEE ENE 20 KT IN GULF PAPAGAYO AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN ADJUSTED GRIDS JUST RELEASED. $$ NELSON