000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140349 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU OCT 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 90W N OF 06N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 07N88W TO 11N93W. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N83W TO 06N98W TO 08N110W TO 15N128W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 13N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 08N126W TO 11N128W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) STRETCHING W TO E FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N115W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N133W TO A TUTT CELL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS DEEP INTO THE TROPICS FROM 19N106W THROUGH A LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N104W TO 05N85W. THIS TROUGH SPLITS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN HALF...WITH TWO BROAD ANTICYCLONES...ONE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE OTHER IN THE PACIFIC NEAR 12N124W. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ENHANCES BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 06N TO 26N W OF 120W...AND N OF 18N E OF 120W. DEEP CONVECTION IS GENERATED AND SUSTAINED AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N124W...AND ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA/GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SURFACE... SCATTEROMETER COVERAGE PAST 9 HOURS SHOWS NEARLY ALL WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN 15 KT OR LESS. WINDS AROUND THE LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N 130W AND SSE WINDS S OF 05N BETWEEN 115W AND 121W ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KT. OTHERWISE WINDS...EXCEPT FOR GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. SEAS OF 8 FT OR MORE ARE LIMITED TO N AND NW QUADRANTS OF LOW NEAR 13N130W. GAP WINDS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING WINDS TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NORWEIGIAN STAR ID C6FR3 REPORTED 52 KT WINDS AND 13 FT SEAS AT 0100 UTC NEAR 15N95W...SO HIGH WIND EVENT APPEARS WELL UNDERWAY. WINDS TO STRONG GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING. $$ MUNDELL