000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131707
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE....
A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 05N ALONG 82W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF PANAMA 
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. 

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N83W 07N105W TO A 1011 MB LOW 
AT 08N113W TO ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW AT 13N127W TO 10N140W. BESIDES 
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 09N TO 12 N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW 
AT 08N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
180 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW AT 13N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W.  

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N125W IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER A SURFACE LOW. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FROM 07N TO 25N BETWEEN 
110W AND 140W. FURTHER E...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF THE EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 
110W. ELSEWHERE...TWO SMALL SHORTWAVE CYCLONES ARE W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE AT 29N135W AND AT 27N116W MOVING 
E.   

ON THE SURFACE... 
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 31N140W. A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SE TO 17N110W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF 
THIS RIDGE...AND N OF THE LOW AT 13N127W...IS SUPPORTING NE 
TRADES TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT W OF LOW TO 135W FROM 13N TO 
18N. 

GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KT ARE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN LESS THAN 6 HOURS. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST BEYOND THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 

$$
FORMOSA