000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE MEANDERS OVER THE PACIFIC 
WATERS FROM 08N84W TO 08N94W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N106W TO 
1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N120W TO 08N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W 
AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
115W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN 18Z ASCAT PASS SHOW N TO NE 
WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED 
NEAR38N138W...AND A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOWED A SWATH OF FRESH TRADE 
WINDS MAINLY N OF 12N AND W OF 125W...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF HIGH PRES NEAR THE ITCZ. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND 
SHIFT EAST THROUGH WED AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING 
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE NE PACIFIC...ALLOWING 
THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO DIMINISH. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER 
PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE TROPICS...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 28N135W TO 16N150W...WEST OF AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING N-S ALONG ROUGHLY 125W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE 
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JET MAX BETWEEN THESE TWO 
FEATURES IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ W OF 135W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE...FROM 22N118W TO 03N102W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS AIDING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
NEAR A 1010 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N120W. 

FURTHER EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WINDS ARE NOTED 
CURRENTLY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO 
THE GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES...AND AS NEWLY 
FORMED TROPICAL STORM PAULA PUSHES INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. 

SW SWELL UP TO 8 FT WITH PERIOD TO 15 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PUSH 
ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO THE WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE 
NORTH WILL PUSH FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL OF HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT 
AND PERIODS TO 11 SECONDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 23N BY 
EARLY WED.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN