000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE MEANDERS OVER THE PACIFIC 
WATERS FROM 08N83W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N105W TO 1010 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 10N120W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG N OF 06N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 121W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 
08N TO 17N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

ASCAT DATA FROM 05Z AND 07Z SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TRADE 
WINDS MAINLY N OF 12N AND W OF 125W...SOUTH OF A 1035 MB SURFACE 
HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 37N137W. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL 
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH WED AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
DIGGING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE NE 
PACIFIC...ALLOWING THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO DIMINISH. A FAIRLY 
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE TROPICS...WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N135W TO 16N150W...WEST OF AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N-S ALONG ROUGHLY 125W. DIVERGENT FLOW 
ALOFT ON THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 KT JET MAX 
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 135W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE...FROM 22N118W TO 
03N102W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS AIDING 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR A 1010 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE 
ITCZ NEAR 10N120W. 

FURTHER EAST...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE 
PANAMANIAN AND COSTA RICAN COASTS...ENHANCED BY 10 TO 15 KT 
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. NO SIGNIFICANT GAP 
WINDS ARE NOTED CURRENTLY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 20 TO 
25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUE AS A COLD 
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH 
PRES. 

SW SWELL UP TO 8FT WITH PERIOD TO 15 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PUSH 
ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO THE WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE 
NORTH WILL PUSH FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL OF HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT 
AND PERIODS TO 11 SECONDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 23N BY 
EARLY WED.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN