000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N81W TO 
07N96W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES AT 09N113W TO A SECOND 1011 MB LOW 
PRES AT 11N123W...WITH THE AXIS CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 09N140W. 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INTERMITTENT WITHIN 15 NM OF 
09N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N121W TO 09N126W TO 
10N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N121W TO 21N140W WITH A SMALL 
AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
29N BETWEEN 127W AND 137W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS 
STALLED ALONG 32N141W TO 28N150W AND SEEMS TO BE WASHING OUT.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 18N104W WITH A RIDGE SW TO A 
FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 11N126W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO NEAR 
19N97W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
W OF 119W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
ADVECTED N BUT EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING ALONG 18N. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO OVER THE E PACIFIC AT 17N96W AND INTO AN UPPER 
CYCLONE LOSING IDENTITY AT 12N110W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 12N TO A 
CREST AT 12N95W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER 
COLOMBIA IS SPREADING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC S OF 10N E 
OF 87W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N129W 
1024 MB WITH A RIDGE SW TO BEYOND 26N140W AND A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 
16N110W. THE GRADIENT S OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ 
IS SUPPORTING NE TO E TRADES AT 20 WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 11 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP A LITTLE FURTHER S ALLOWING A 
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP RAPIDLY E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH 
MON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF NE WINDS TO ALL WATERS N OF 
10N W OF 125W BY SUN NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 ARE NOTED OVER AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT TONIGHT...THEN BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 
20 TO 25 KT SUN MORNING...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 
20 KT BY MON MORNING.
  
$$
NELSON