000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W TO 
06N95W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES AT 10N119W WITH AXIS CONTINUING W 
BETWEEN 08N AND 10N TO NEAR 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF 09N107.5W AND ALSO WITHIN 
THE AREA FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE SWEEPING E ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 32N130W TO 25N140W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER MOISTURE TO 
THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LAGS 
BEHIND ROUGHLY ALONG 32N139W TO 32N145W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 32N117W TO 25N131W. A THIRD UPPER TROUGH DISSECTS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 94W AND OVER 
THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC INTO A UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 07N106W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N107W WITH A RIDGE W TO 
NEAR 15N135W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS NE...SEPARATING THE SECOND 
AND THIRD UPPER TROUGHS...TO A CREST OVER TEXAS AT 32N96W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS ENHANCED SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION EARLIER ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 128W...WITH 
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW ADVECTED NE TO ALONG 17N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 126W...WHERE THE MOISTURE EVAPORATES. A SMALL MOISTURE 
PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...IS STREAMING NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE...WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N140W TO 23N124W. 
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY OVER THE DISCUSSION 
AREA W OF 90W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W 
1021 MB WITH A RIDGE SW TO 25N140W AND A RIDGE SE TO 16N107W. A 
FEW CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 
125W...WITH THE MOST PREDOMINATE LOW NEAR 10N120W AND ESTIMATED 
AT 1009 MB. THE GRADIENT N OF THIS LOW AND TO THE S OF THE 
SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 
ABOUT 11 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS THE LOW MOVES W AT 
10 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 ARE NOTED OVER AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT SAT NIGHT AND TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
SUN.

BROAD LOW PRES CONTINUES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BUT IS VERY 
DISORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT. IF ORGANIZATION OCCURS WOULD EXPECT 
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO INCREASE.
  
$$
NELSON