000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W TO 
06N95W TO LOW PRES 10N120W TO 08N125W TO 10N135W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
115W AND 130W.

E OF 110W...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BY LATE 
SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. FURTHER 
S...A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
SHOW 20 KT WIND OFF THE WESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA IN 
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. NORTH OF 
10N...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED AND 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 
THIS TIME. MODEST CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OFF THE 
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTS OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE 
ABUNDANT AND SW FLOW WILL CONVERGE WITH NIGHTTIME DRAINAGE FLOW.

W OF 110W...
BROAD LOW PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N117W WITH A 
PRES ESTIMATED AROUND 1008 MB. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS 
SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 
12N106W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
AIDING CONVECTION OCCASIONALLY PULSING. WEST FLOW ALOFT IS 
SHEARING THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE NO RECENT 
ASCAT DATA ARE AVAILABLE NEAR THIS CIRCULATION...IT IS PLAUSIBLE 
THAT THERE ARE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 
IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A 1021 MB HIGH 
PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 29N131W. ASCAT DATA SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES W OF THE CIRCULATION S OF 20N. FURTHER 
NORTH...A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND 19Z SHOWS AN AREA OF 
8 FT SEAS NEAR 23N125W. THIS IS DUE TO DECAYING NW SWELL THAT 
PUSHED INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY...AND SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT 
BY EARLY TOMORROW. S OF 10N...SW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 9 FT AND 
PERIOD TO 16S BETWEEN ROUGHLY 95W AND 125W.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN