000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

08N83W 07N94W 10N114W 09N122W 10N129W 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 08N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 136W.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N116W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 09N TO 
11N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W. EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS WITHIN 180 NM
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE TO RANGE FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT...
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FT TO 10 FT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N133W 11N134W 09N135W.

ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
102W AND 106W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FOR 500 MB HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A COMPARATIVELY NOT WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE AREA OF THIS PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 116W...AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N131W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA NEAR 37N115W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE 
NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 130W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW MERGES WITH 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N140W 
TO 24N130W AND CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD.

THE GALE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS ENDED FOR
THE MOMENT. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDES WINDS
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W TO 11N98W.
SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 FT TO 11 FT.

SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 FT IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 
10N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 95W AND 125W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IN 
MIXED SOUTHWESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.
 
$$
MT