000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

08N83W 06N94W 08N105W 10N113W 09N120W 11N129W 09N135W 9N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 136W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 114W. THE WIND SPEEDS
WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WILL RANGE FROM
20 KT TO 25 KT. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 FT TO 10 FT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N128W 12N130W 08N132W.

ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 104W. SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS FOR 500 MB SHOW A NOT WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE AREA OF THIS PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 128W...AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 36N118W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 130W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MERGES WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT PASSES
THROUGH 22N140W TO 24N130W AND CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD.

THE GALE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS ENDED FOR
THE MOMENT. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDES WINDS
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W TO 12N98W TO 
10N102W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 9 FT TO 13 FT.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PERSISTS INTO
THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTLINES...AND WILL CONVERGE WITH 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW TO INITIATE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION. 

SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 FT IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 95W AND 125W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
IN MIXED SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.
 
$$
MT