000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N94W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 
10N114W TO 10N126W TO 08N133W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT PASS AT 0300 UTC INDICATE THAT WINDS 
HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE IN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO 
WEAKEN. GAP WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT SHOULD 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BELOW 20 
KT FRI AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS FURTHER 
AND SHIFTS EAST. SEAS TO 12 FT ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE 
AS WINDS DIMINISH. FURTHER SOUTH...CROSS-EQUATORIAL MODERATE SW 
FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTLINES...AND 
WILL CONVERGE WITH OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW TO INITIATE EARLY 
MORNING CONVECTION. 

W OF 110W...
ENHANCED TRADE WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1010 MB LOW PRES 
AREA CENTERED NEAR 10N114W ARE NOTED IN ASCAT DATA EXTENDING 
FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 110W...S OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 27N130W. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST NEAR THE 
LOW AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST THROUGH FRI. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO 29N124W. NW SWELL 
TO 10 FT WITH PERIODS OF 10-12 SEC ARE EXPECTED N OF 26N BETWEEN 
117W AND 130W. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL NW SWELL S OF 10N BETWEEN
95W AND 120W WILL SUBSIDE...BUT MORE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL 
ENTERS THE AREA TODAY...MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$
MUNDELL