000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 
07N92W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 10N113W TO 10N125W TO 08N130W TO 
09N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN 210 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE 
PAST DAY HINT THAT THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE AS 
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO 
WEAKEN. GAP WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT 
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU...AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT BY FRI AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS EAST. SEAS OF UP TO 13 FT ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WINDS 
DIMINISH. FURTHER SOUTH...CROSS-EQUATORIAL MODERATE SW FLOW 
PERSISTS INTO THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTLINES...AND WILL 
CONVERGE WITH OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW TO INITIATE EARLY MORNING 
CONVECTION. 

W OF 110W...
A BROAD AREA OF TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED IN ASCAT DATA FROM 18-19Z 
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N W OF 110W...S OF A 1024 MB 
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N135W. THESE TRADES ARE ENHANCED 
SLIGHTLY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A 1010 MB LOW PRES AREA CENTERED 
NEAR 10N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS WITH THE 
LOW PRES...AIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF AN 
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 08N97W.THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT 
SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THU. A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM 23Z ALONG WITH 
ASCAT DATA AND LOW LEVEL GOES DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO 28N125W IS 
DIGGING EASTWARD. THE SHIP REPORTED 20 KT WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE 
GIVEN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH THE HIGH PRES TO 
THE WEST. NW SWELL UP TO 8 FT WITH PERIODS TO 12S WILL FOLLOW 
THE WINDS...ALTHOUGH WILL DECAY THROUGH THU. FURTHER 
SOUTH...RESIDUAL NW SWELL S OF 10N BETWEEN ROUGHLY 95W AND 120W 
WILL SUBSIDE JUST AS A NEW ROUND OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL 
ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH THU...MAINTAINING SIGNFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS TO 8 FT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN