000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

07N86W 07N92W 10N109W 09N118W 12N123W 10N130W 9N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 07N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 07N91W 08N96W 
09N102W 09N106W 11N110W 11N115W 13N118W 15N120W...AND FROM 08N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 121W AND 129W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS 
NEAR 10N111W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N124W 11N126W 09N127W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO ALONG 100W TO 14N99W. NO DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN CALIFORNIA
NEAR 36N120W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO
24N114W...JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEAR 35N115W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER
TO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AT THE BORDER WITH MEXICO.

GAP WINDS...
UNUSUALLY LONG-DURATION GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING
A PERSISTENT PUSH OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE SEAS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY PERSISTENT 
GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM
10 FT TO 14 FT. THE GALE WARNING EXISTS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14N95W TO 13N96W INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. THE FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
MT