000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060947 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 08N99W TO LOW PRES 1012 MB NEAR 
10N110W TO 12N123W TO 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW ANALYZED NEAR 36N119W IN AN OMEGA BLOCK 
PATTERN...WITH WLY WINDS N OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DISPLACED 
WELL S OF USUAL POSITION. WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 10N WITH NO 
WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONES EVIDENT FROM CLOUD DRIFT WINDS. AS A 
RESULT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD 
ITCZ CONVECTION DUE TO A LACK OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.

SURFACE...
ANIMATED SAT IMAGERY REVEALS WEAK 1012 LOW PRES NEAR 10N11W. NO 
ASCAT DATA IS AVAILABLE DUE TO SPACECRAFT MAINTENANCE...BUT THIS 
LOW APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW TO OVER 20 KT IN THE 
N SEMICIRCLE. MODELS INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN A WEAK CIRCULATION 
AND MOVE W AT 10 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. WEAKENING TROUGH ANALYZED 
FROM 10N126W TO 15N122W. THE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA 
OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW EXTENDING FROM 10N TO 23N W 
OF 120W. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS OFF CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW A NEW 
SURGE OF NW TO N SWELL WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA N OF 26N 
BETWEEN 117W AND 130W NEXT 12-24 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS NEARLY ALL 
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE WINDS BELOW 20 KT...AND THE AREA 
OF 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS WILL CONTRACT TO BETWEEN 95W AND 120W.

GAP WINDS...
UNUSUALLY LONG-DURATION GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL 
UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT 
PUSH OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
OBSERVATIONS FROM SALINA CRUZ ON THE PACIFIC COAST WERE TO 30 KT 
MON AFTERNOON...INDICATIVE OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER WATER. SEAS 
GENERATED BY PERSISTENT GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE 10-14 FT. A JASON ALTIMETER PASS MONDAY SHOWED 
SEAS REACHING 10 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GENERATION AREA. 

$$
MUNDELL