000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 
08N96W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB 10N109W TO 12N122W TO 08N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
THE MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED 
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT PUSH OF 
AIR THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. OBSERVATIONS FROM SALINA 
CRUZ ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE ISTHMUS REACHED AS HIGH AS 30 
KT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INDICATIVE OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER 
THE WATER. MEANWHILE IN THE WATERS S OF 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 
125W...LONG PERIOD SWELL IS CONVERGING FROM THE NW AND SW...AS 
WELL SOME INPUT FROM THE NE ORIGINATING WITH THE STRONG WINDS 
THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC. A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY 
SHOWED SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 10 FT IN THIS AREA. A WELL 
DEVELOPED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N107W...WITH SURFACE PRES ESTIMATED AROUND 
1012 MB. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW ON ITS 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT REMAINING A WEAK 
CIRCULATION THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W AT 10 KT. WHILE 
CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GENERALLY 
LACKING...EXPECT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA OVERNIGHT WHERE SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONVERGE 
WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE COASTS.

W OF 110W...
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION NEAR 14N120W APPEARS TO BE OPENING 
INTO A TROUGH ON THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE 
WIND FLOW EXTENDING MAINLY FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W. LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL IS ALSO PUSHING THROUGH THIS AREA...BUT WILL 
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGH PRES OFF THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST IS MAINTAINING FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW AS FAR SOUTH AS 
31N...BUT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE ONLY 10 TO 
15 KT FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST S OF 31N. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY 
WINDS OFF CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW A NEW SURGE OF NW TO N SWELL 
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W BY 48 
HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ANYWHERE W OF 110W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN