000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 
08N93W TO LOW PRES 10N107W TO LOW PRES 14N120W TO 08N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
THE MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED 
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT PUSH OF 
AIR THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. OBSERVATIONS FROM SALINA 
CRUZ ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE ISTHMUS REACHED AS HIGH AS 30 
KT DURING THE LAST HOUR...INDICATIVE OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER 
THE WATER. MEANWHILE IN THE WATERS S OF 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 
125W...LONG PERIOD SWELL IS CONVERGING FROM THE NW AND SW...AS 
WELL SOME INPUT FROM THE NE ORIGINATING WITH THE STRONG WINDS 
THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC. A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY 
SHOWED SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 10 FT IN THIS AREA. A WELL 
DEVELOPED CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N107W...WITH SURFACE PRES ESTIMATED AROUND 
1012 MB. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW ON ITS 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT WEAKENING OR EVEN 
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THEN REDEVELOPING TO A 
WEAK CIRCULATION BY 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W AT 10 KT. CONVECTION 
IS MINIMAL AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LACKING. 
HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OFF THE COASTS 
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA OVERNIGHT WHERE SW MONSOON FLOW WILL 
CONVERGE WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE COASTS.

W OF 110W...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRES AREA 
NEAR 14N120W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1012 MB. WINDSAT AND 
ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOW TRADE WINDS ON THE NORTHERN 
SIDE OF THIS LOW PRES TO BE 20 TO 25 KT. THE LOW PRES IS 
EMBEDDED IN A BROADER AREA OF FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW EXTENDING 
MAINLY FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS ALSO 
PUSHING THROUGH THIS AREA...BUT WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. HIGH PRES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS MAINTAINING FRESH 
NORTHERLY FLOW AS FAR SOUTH AS 31N...BUT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND 
ASCAT DATA INDICATE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT FLOW OFF THE BAJA COAST S 
OF 31N. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS OFF CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW A 
NEW SURGE OF NW TO N SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 127W BY 48 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ANYWHERE W OF 110W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN