000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 10N105W THEN RESUMES FROM 10N123W TO 10N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 120W HAS EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 
37N121W...WITH THE POLAR JET DIGGING S OF THE LOW TO AROUND 30N.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS DISPLACED FAR SOUTH OF ITS USUAL POSITION TO
AROUND 10N. AS A RESULT...WESTERLY WINDS COVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE 
FORECAST AREA N OF 15N. THIS PATTERN IS USUALLY FOUND MUCH LATER 
IN THE FALL OR EARLY WINTER INSTEAD OF EARLY OCTOBER. THE UPPER 
RIDGE ALONG 10N IS PROVIDING A ZONE OF LIGHT SHEAR DIRECTLY OVER 
THE ITCZ...BUT CONVECTION REMAINS MEAGER AT BEST.

SURFACE...ANIMATED SAT IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE 
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 10N108W AND 
14N119W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA NEAR 40N135W IS CREATING
TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW NEAR 11N144W...FROM 12N TO 22N W 
OF 125W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA FROM A LOW NEAR LAS 
VEGAS. THE STRONG GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL 
GENERATE SHORT PERIOD NW TO N SWELL THAT WILL REACH THE NE PART 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 117W AND 130W IN ABOUT 
36-48 HOURS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SWELL BETWEEN 92W AND 
120W IS SUBSIDING...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

GAP WINDS...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT AND TURN SW 
IN A 150 TO 180 NM PLUME TO NEAR 10.5N100W...AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT FOR 
DIURNAL VARIABILITY. GFS MODEL INDICATES WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 
GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS WINDS WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF MEX.

$$
MUNDELL