000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050257
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 10N86W TO 09N95W TO LOW PRES 10N106W 1011 MB 
TO 09N115W TO 11N127W TO 11N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WAS ALONG THE W COAST OF 
THE U.S. WITH AN EMBEDDED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE DIGGING SE INTO N 
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW 
FROM THIS CYCLONE TO 24N140W AND BEYOND TO NEAR THE BIG ISLAND 
OF HAWAII. A POSITIVE TILT LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES EASTERN N 
AMERICA WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL OLD MEXICO INTO A DISSIPATING UPPER 
CYCLONE NEAR 21N103W. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SSE OVER 
THE E PACIFIC TO A BASE AT 13N100W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
WAS CENTERED NEAR 14N118W WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W 
TO 134W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES DOMINATED THE MAJORITY OF THE 
AREA N OF THIS RIDGE AXIS AND INTO MEXICO...WHERE CONDITIONS 
ALOFT ARE GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WERE 
ALSO S OF THE DISSIPATING UPPER CYCLONE S TO 12N. EASTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT WAS EXITING NW PORTIONS OF S AMERICA AND ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN...AND THE FAR EPAC AND WAS HIGHLY 
DIFFLUENT DUE TO ACTIVE CONVECTION THERE. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
NEAR 08N103W WAS AIDING IN INDUCING A DIVERGENT ASYMPTOTE ALONG 
91W N OF 06N.  

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 
40N137W TO 20N113W. FRESH NELY TRADES ARE PRESENT S OF THE HIGH 
BETWEEN 12N AND 24N OCCURRING MAINLY W OF 130W...WHERE SEAS ARE 
RUNNING 9 TO 12 FT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED 
ON THE MAP FROM FAR NW BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 25N123W. NORTHERLY 
FLOW ALL ALONG THE W COAST OF THE U.S. IS GENERATING NW SWELL 
MOVING INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT WILL BUILD COMBINED 
SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS DOMINATING THE SEAS... 
KEEPING SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND GREATER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
AREA.  

GAP WINDS...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT AND TURN SW 
IN A 150 TO 180 NM PLUME TO NEAR 10.5N100W...AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST FOR 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING