000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042122
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 09N96W TO LOW PRES AT 09N105W 1011 MB TO 
12N126W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO 
09N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 08N104W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH LIES PARALLEL TO THE SW 
COAST CONUS WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION EXTENDING INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N121W TO A BASE AT 28N112W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY NEAR 15N119W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 14N131W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS
N AND IS AMPLIFYING OVER NEW MEXICO TO BEYOND 32N104W. A 
POSITIVE TILT LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES EASTERN N AMERICA WITH 
ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND CENTRAL OLD MEXICO INTO A DISSIPATING UPPER CYCLONE NEAR  
21N104W. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SSE OVER THE E PACIFIC 
TO A BASE AT 13N101W. NOTE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDING SE 
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA APPEARS TO AMPLIFYING S AND WILL LIKELY 
DEEPEN INTO THIS SOUTHERN TROUGH. ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES 
TO BE ENHANCED NEAR 21N105W...BUT THE DEBRIS MOISTURE QUICKLY 
EVAPORATES. CONVECTION IS INTERMITTENT NEAR 12N137W WITH THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED TO ALONG 16N BETWEEN 133W AND 140W. A 
FEW TSTMS CONTINUE TO FLARE NEAR 16N116W WITH THE DEBRIS 
EVAPORATING IN THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE... THE UPPER LEVELS ARE 
DRY W OF 110W. 

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA ALONG 13N TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 09N105W. THE 
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN 
ENHANCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND 
COLOMBIA AND ENHANCING SPORADIC CONVECTION ALONG THE E PACIFIC 
ITCZ. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION HAS 
BEEN SPREADING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC...BUT REMAINS 
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE E OF 90W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N142W TO 22N115W. LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELLS AT 9 TO 12 SECONDS ARE PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS 
TO 10 FT OVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 32N115W TO 10N128W TO 
10N140W.  

GAP WINDS...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST FOR 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON