000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040258
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS FROM 09N85W TO 08N98W TO 10N102W TO 09N110W TO 12N123W TO 
LOW PRES 11N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE NW 
CALIFORNIA COAST AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N120W.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH 27N125W 24N130W TO 23N140W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N117W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING WWD THROUGH 15N130W TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
18N140W. A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES N 
AMERICA WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION CROSSING INTO THE AREA 
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SW TO A SMALL NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER 
CYCLONE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N107W. THE 
UPPER TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SW OVER THE E PACIFIC TO A BASE NEAR 
10N110W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE WAS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 
A SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N139W BUT WAS LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT DUE 
TO THE PRESENCE OF A VAST AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
WHICH COVERED MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W. 

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA ALONG 15N TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST NEAR 15N95W. THE 
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE E 
PACIFIC FROM 07N TO 12N E OF 89W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS 
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE RESULTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING 
SOMEWHAT MOIST OVER THE AREA S OF 17N E OF 105W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 21N112W. LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELLS OF 12 TO 16 SECONDS ARE PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS 
TO 11 FT OVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 32N118W TO 07N133W TO 
07N140W. CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW...WITH S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT 
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 90W. 

GAP WINDS...AN EARLY SEASON GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS ONGOING 
IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IXTEPEC MEXICO
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN REPORTING 
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40 KT 
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE SOME ON TUE.

$$
COBB