000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS FROM 09N88W TO 07N96W TO 10N103W TO 12N122W TO LOW PRES 
10N137W 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 
NM OF 07.5N87W AND 15 NM EITHER SIDE A LINE FROM 07N99W TO 
11N102W. INTERMITTENT SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES AT 10N137W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N118W 
TO 21N140W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS DISSIPATING ALONG 28N120W 
TO 18N128W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 17N117W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 14N136W. AN UPPER RIDGE 
ALSO EXTENDS N ALONG 117W TO A GENTLE CREST AT 23N117W. A 
POSITIVE TILT LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES N AMERICA WITH THE 
TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO FROM 32N91W TO A SMALL 
UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF OLD MEXICO AT 20N105W. 
THE UPPER TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SW OVER THE E PACIFIC TO A BASE 
AT 10N109W. FOR THE MOST PART...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY W OF 
110W. 

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA ALONG 15N90W TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 10N104W. THE 
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER 
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE E PACIFIC FROM 08N TO 12N E 
OF 105W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SEEMS TO REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER 
RIDGE RESULTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING MOIST OVER THE AREA S 
OF 18N E OF 100W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N142W TO 21N112W. LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE 
AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 32N118W TO 07N133W TO 07N140W. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL FLOW...WITH S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE 
AREA GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 90W. 

GAP WINDS...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
FURTHER INCREASE TO 40 KT ON MON THEN DIMINISH SOME ON TUE. 

$$
NELSON