000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020951 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT 0CT 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS FROM 15N97W TO 10N112W TO 11N135W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STATIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THE PRESENT TIME...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR 13N109W...A BLOCKING HIGH CENTERED NEAR 16N116W...AND A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN AN AREA GENERALLY S OF 13N...E OF 117W. SAT WINDS INDICATE WEAK DIVERGENT FLOW NE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 05N145W THAT IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR 10N136W. THIS CONVECTION TENDS TO STANDS OUT SIMPLY BECAUSE THE ENTIRE BASIN IS VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SURFACE... SW/IR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 10N 136W. NO OTHER SURFACE CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA EXCEPT FOR WEAK EDDIES WITHIN THE ITCZ. SSW MONSOON FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 11N E OF 110W WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. WEAK 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED NEAR 32N134W. GAP WINDS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AS A BROAD HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. PUSHES SOUTHWARD. BY 48 HOURS THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 22N101W WHICH TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH HIGHEST WINDS MON MORNING. MARINE... CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FT CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. NW SWELLS BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE AREA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT IN FAR NW PART IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NEAR 40N140W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WILL DRIFT E TO NEAR 40N134W IN 72 HOURS AS A 1032 MB HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE GALE OR NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 12 FT OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUE MORNING. $$ MUNDELL