000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT 0CT 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS ALONG 12N103W TO 08N120W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N102W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 21N138W WITH A RIDGE NE TO 29N134W. 
UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED S OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WITHIN 180 
NM OF 12N136W. A SECOND ANTICYCLONE IS AT 25N108W WITH A RIDGE N 
TO 30N110W AND A RIDGE SW TO 18N125W. SEPARATING THESE 
ANTICYCLONES IS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ALONG 32N120W TO 20N127W 
TO 10N126W. A STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS OLD 
MEXICO TO A BASE AT 15N104W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 15N88W TO A CREST AT 12N105W. DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND DISSIPATING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W 
TO 85W...IS ADVECTED W OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 114W. 
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY W OF 120W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N 
W OF 115W WITH A EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW NEAR 25N120W. 
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 14N E OF 120W 
WITH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT. SUBSIDING NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING 
SE THROUGH THE SUBTROPICS AND IS BEING REINFORCED ANOTHER NW 
SWELL TRAIN OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE SPILLING THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...THEN INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE IN ABOUT 54 HOURS. 

$$
NELSON