000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI 0CT 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS FROM 09N114W TO 08N124W TO 13N134W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 35N121W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 
26N129W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS DEEP INTO THE TROPICS FROM 
LOUISIANA ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR 16N105W. HIGH AMPLITUDE 
RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS IS ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
20N113W. WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
AT 16N105W WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ACTIVE 
CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS BEING ADVECTED W ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 115W. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY 
W OF 118W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRES IS CENTERED AT 29N136W. A 
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE NEAR 13N135W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. 
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 14N E OF 125W 
WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. SUBSIDING NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING 
SE THROUGH THE SUBTROPICS AND WILL BE REINFORCED ANOTHER NW 
SWELL TRAIN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT 
OVER THE NW CORNER.   

GAP WINDS...N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THROUGH 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL