000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS 12N116W TO 11N124W TO 12N133W TO 11N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...
RIDGE EXTENDS WNW FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N99W THROUGH 22N120W
TO AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 27N127W. AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
NEAR 29N117W IS SIPHONING DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE AWAY FROM 
THE DEEP TROPICS INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE ELY SHEAR 
PERSISTS S OF RIDGE AXIS...INHIBITING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

SURFACE...
BUOY SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW SW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AROUND 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT. THE SW WINDS 
ARE FEEDING INTO A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THAT 
IS ASSOCIATED BOTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS HIGHLY 
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS AND 
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE 
NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT WILL LIFT NE AHEAD OF 
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NLY 
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE...SHIFTING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY THERE 
WHILE THE DOMINANT FLOW S OF 14N AND E OF ABOUT 100W REMAINS SW.

MARINE...
15-17 SEC LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO PUSH SE FROM THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC IN TO THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS 
SEAS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE FROM A MAX OF 13 FT OVER NW WATERS 
FROM THIS SWELL TRAIN. THIS INITIAL SWELL TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO 
SPREAD SE ACROSS NW HALF OF THE BASIN AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE... 
WHILE A SECOND SURGE OF NW SWELL WILL REACH FAR NW WATERS TUE 
AND BRING THE SEAS BACK TO THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL