000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY SPARSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
PERSISTENT QUASI-STATIONARY 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 
15N108W. EAST SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT ON THIS THE LOW 
PRES...KEEPING THE FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE 
WEST OF THE CENTER. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO...AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THIS 
MAY ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO CONSOLIDATE BETTER NEAR THE CENTER 
OF THE LOW PRES AND ALLOW IT TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER 
OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED 09N112W TO 
12N120W TO 11N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ALONG 
THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W....
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 27N111W...BETWEEN AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 29N126W...AND 
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE 20N101W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SURFACE LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE MAY INCREASE AS THE UPPER CYCLONE 
DRIFTS FURTHER WEST THROUGH TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH...REPORTS FROM 
ASCAT...TOGA-TAO BUOY DATA...AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE 
SW WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO 20 TO 25 KT FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 
110W. THE INCREASE IN WINDS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MATTHEW. JASON 
ALTIMETER DATA FROM 05Z SHOWED SEAS TO 8 FT S OF THE GUATEMALA 
COAST. 

W OF 115W...
WEAK LOW PRES 1011 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 11N122W CLOSE TO THE ITCZ 
AXIS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY SHOWED ENHANCED WINDS TO 
20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS LOW. HOWEVER...THE SAME PASS 
SHOWED GENERALLY SW FLOW THROUGH THE LOW WITH LITTLE HINT OF A 
CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION. THIS LOW HAS PERSISTED AS A WEAK 
CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ...AND IS PROBABLY IN THE PROCESS OF 
FILLING ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. FURTHER NORTH...15-17 
SECOND PERIOD SWELL IS PUSHING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 
AS HIGH AS 13 FT WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 
NW SWELL OF 10 TO 13 FT TO SPREAD SE THROUGH THE AREA AND 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL REACHING 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TUE. A SECOND SURGE OF NW 
SWELL WILL REACH NW WATERS TUE AND BRING THE SEAS BACK TO THE 8 
TO 13 FT RANGE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN