000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N108W TO 9N115W TO 12N127W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 10N132W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...
BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N111W 
TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 27N129W. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE RIDGE SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND GAINING AMPLITUDE 
AS A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC DEEPENS NEAR 150W. A BROAD 
SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS. THESE WINDS WERE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WWD TO 
ALONG 120W.   

SURFACE...
WEAKENING LOW PRES 1008 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 16N104W. CONVECTION 
IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER UNDER THE MODERATE TO 
STRONG EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW NOTED ABOVE. THIS PERSISTENT 
SHEAR WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. 

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN AN AREA 
N OF 13N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE COAST OF GUATEMALA 
BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N131W WITH 
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 25N125W TO 18N115W. SOUTH OF 
THE HIGH PRES RIDGE...A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER IS 
CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 12N131W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND DRIFT SLOWLY E. 

EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OFF CENTRAL AMERICA 
SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW CHURNS 
FURTHER INLAND. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH EXISTING SW WINDS 
TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FROM 5N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 85W AND 105W BY LATE SUN. NORTHERLY FLOW W OF REMNANT 
LOW MAY FORCE 20 KT WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL. 

MARINE...
THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DRIVING 
COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS TO 13 FT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE 
SUN...REACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA MON NIGHT AND TUE.

$$
MUNDELL