000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N108W TO 10N120W TO 11N127W THEN
RESUMES FROM 10N132W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 
112W...AND BETWEEN 124W AND 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 28N110W THROUGH 26N125W TO 23N140W. A BROAD SWATH OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS. THESE WINDS WERE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WWD TO ALONG 
120W.   

SURFACE LOW PRES 1008 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 16N104W. CONVECTION IS 
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER UNDER THE MODERATE TO 
STRONG EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW NOTED ABOVE. THIS PERSISTENT 
SHEAR WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES 
CENTER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW AT 5 TO 10 
KT. 

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN AN 
AREA 13N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 91W AND 
95W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N132W
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 25N125W TO 
18N115W. SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE...A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE 
LOW PRES CENTER IS CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N130W. AN 1836 
UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 
3 DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY E. 

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OFF 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS TROPICAL STORM 
MATTHEW CONTINUES TO CHURN FURTHER WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA 
THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH EXISTING SW MONSOONAL FLOW TO 
PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 5N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 85W AND 100W BY LATE SUN. IN ADDITION NORTHERLY FLOW
W OF THE REMNANT LOW MAY FORCE 20 KT WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL. 

THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DRIVING 
COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS TO 13 FT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE 
SUN AND REACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA MON NIGHT AND TUE.

$$
COBB