000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI SEP 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N105W TO 11N120W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W 
AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
NEAR 28N110W THROUGH 26N125W TO 23N140W. A BROAD SWATH OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS. THESE WINDS WERE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WWD TO ALONG 
120W.   

SURFACE LOW PRES 1008 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 16N103W. CONVECTION IS 
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER UNDER THE MODERATE TO 
STRONG EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW NOTED ABOVE. THIS PERSISTENT 
SHEAR WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES 
CENTER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW. 

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN AN AREA 
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. THESE STORM WERE THE 
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OF SW GRADIENT WINDS AND NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BUT NOW HAVE 
TRAVERSED FURTHER OFFSHORE. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N134W
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 25N125W TO 
18N115W. SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE...A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE 
LOW PRES CENTER IS CENTERED NEAR 11N130W. ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH 
TOGA BUOY REPORTS SHOW 20 KT FLOW WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW 
CENTER. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS 
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY E. 

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OFF 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST ON SAT AND SUN AS TROPICAL STORM 
MATTHEW IN THE CARIBBEAN SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH EXISTING SW 
MONSOONAL FLOW TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W BY LATE SUN.  

THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL INDICATES LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DRIVING 
COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS TO 13 FT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE 
SUN AND REACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA MON NIGHT AND TUE.

$$
COBB