000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240951 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI SEP 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N105W TO 12N111W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... SURFACE LOW PRES 1005 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 16N102W. CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE PERSISTENT SHEAR WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES CENTER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 04Z SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT ON THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. CONVERGENCE OF SW GRADIENT WINDS AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST IS CAUSING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO FLARE OFF THE COAST FROM NICARAGUA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE 2 TO 3 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRES 1024 MB IS ENTERED NEAR 30N138W. THE 04Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS STILL ACTIVE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRES NEAR THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES...A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER IS CENTERED NEAR 11N130W. ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH TOGA BUOY REPORTS SHOW 20 KT FLOW WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. LOOKING AHEAD...EXCEPT SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST THIS WEEKEND AS TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IN THE CARIBBEAN SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL INDICATES LONG PERIOD SWELLS DRIVING COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS TO 12 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND REACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA MON NIGHT. $$ CHRISTENSEN