000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232131 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU SEP 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N96W TO 10N105W TO 11N115W TO 10N125W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-132W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER FAR NE MEXICO WITH A RIDGE SW TO 24N130W TO 20N140W. TO THE N OF THE RIDGE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA MOVING INLAND THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE...UPPER LEVEL NE TO E MODERATE FLOW IS PRESENT WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN SUSTAINING CONVECTION E OF ABOUT 109W. UNDERNEATH THIS FLOW PATTERN...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONSISTING OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF MEXICO FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W-105W AND IS DEPICTED AS A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 15N101W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 8 KT. WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS BEING CHANNELED SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NE MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS N OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. DEVELOPMENT WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES WNW. AT THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVELS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS N OF 19N W OF 125W...WITH A PARENT HIGH OF 1021 MB NEAR 31N139W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS ESE TO NEAR 25N125W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 23N BETWEEN 115W-120W TO THE BAJA PENINSULA COAST. THIS GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 06 HOURS. A 1021 MB LOW IS NEAR 11N131W WITH WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO MOVE THIS LOW ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT MAINTAIN IT RATHER WEAK. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION DEVELOPS A COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK LOWS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH GENERAL MOTION TO THE E. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT ALREADY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SIMILAR WEAK LOWS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGING ON THE S SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF ABOUT 130W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE SW TO W WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OCCURRING FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 83W AND 112W IN 48 HOURS. THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF POSSIBLY 12 OR 13 FT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS WEEKEND...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO ROUGHLY 16N140W BY LATE SUN. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232131 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU SEP 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N96W TO 10N105W TO 11N115W TO 10N125W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-132W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER FAR NE MEXICO WITH A RIDGE SW TO 24N130W TO 20N140W. TO THE N OF THE RIDGE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA MOVING INLAND THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE...UPPER LEVEL NE TO E MODERATE FLOW IS PRESENT WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN SUSTAINING CONVECTION E OF ABOUT 109W. UNDERNEATH THIS FLOW PATTERN...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONSISTING OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF MEXICO FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W-105W AND IS DEPICTED AS A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 15N101W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 8 KT. WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS BEING CHANNELED SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NE MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS N OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. DEVELOPMENT WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES WNW. AT THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVELS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS N OF 19N W OF 125W...WITH A PARENT HIGH OF 1021 MB NEAR 31N139W. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS ESE TO NEAR 25N125W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 23N BETWEEN 115W-120W TO THE BAJA PENINSULA COAST. THIS GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 06 HOURS. A 1021 MB LOW IS NEAR 11N131W WITH WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO MOVE THIS LOW ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT MAINTAIN IT RATHER WEAK. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION DEVELOPS A COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK LOWS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH GENERAL MOTION TO THE E. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT ALREADY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SIMILAR WEAK LOWS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGING ON THE S SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF ABOUT 130W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE SW TO W WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OCCURRING FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 83W AND 112W IN 48 HOURS. THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF POSSIBLY 12 OR 13 FT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS WEEKEND...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO ROUGHLY 16N140W BY LATE SUN. $$ AGUIRRE