000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230430 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU SEP 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 28.7N 110.9W AT 
23/0300 UTC MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. CONVECTION IS NEARLY DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A 
FEW SHOWERS NOTED WELL INLAND MEXICO. GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW EARLY THU MORNING AND DISSIPATE THU. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY WTPZ32 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N100W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 06N84W TO 14N105W AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM 
LINE EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N115W TO 09N124W TO 12N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AT 28N103W 
WITH A RIDGE SW TO 23N121W AND SE TO 18N94W. FURTHER W...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N118W TO 24N130W. DRY UPPER 
AIR IS INDICATED N OF 17N W OF 120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS 
BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICS S OF 23N E OF 110W. 
THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING SW TO THE EQUATOR E 
OF 110W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE BROAD LOW PRES S OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED 
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW AT 14N97W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W 
ABOUT 10 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SERIES OF CYCLONIC SWIRLS 
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL 
FLOW. A CURRENT LOW IS NEAR 15N116W 1010 MB IS MOVING E FAIRLY 
RAPIDLY AND EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 14N108W IN 24 HOURS ACCOMPANIED 
BY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS MOSTLY OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE IN THE 
ENVIRONMENTAL SW FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM 08N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 133W. A SECOND LOW NEAR 11N132W IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE E BUT DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE 
DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS N OF 19N W OF 110W. THE INTERACTION 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SUPPORT NW 
TO N 20 KT WINDS FLOW OVER THE WATERS N OF 23N E OF 120W TO THE 
BAJA PENINSULA COAST. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THU WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 
FT. 

$$
NELSON