000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221013 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED SEP 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 25.8N 110.7W AT 22/0900 UTC MOVING NNW AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FLARING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 60 TO 120 NM NW OF THE CENTER. GEORGETTE HAS EMERGED BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND COMBINED WITH SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT...A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE N ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF GUAYMAS NEAR 28N111W LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE SONORA DESERT THU AND THU NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC AND WTPZ32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOONAL S TO SW WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS THE AREA. A MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N105W TO LOW PRES 13N119W 1007 MB TO LOW PRES 11N134W 1010 MB TO LOW PRES 11N140W 1012 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM N OF TROUGH AXIS AND S OF TROUGH TO 08N W OF 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO THE PACIFIC COASTS BETWEEN 85W AND 105W...WITH A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF 13.5N95.5W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA...DRAPED ACROSS THE TOP OF THE PERSISTENT RIDGE...AND EXTENDED FROM 30N126W TO 31N140W. SE OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER EXTENDS FROM A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AT 28N105W W-SW TO 23N125W. A SECOND UPPER HIGH WAS NOTED TO THE W NEAR 23N135W. THESE TWO HIGHS WERE WEAKLY SEPARATED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 127/128W. THIS BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO YIELD UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA E OF 100W...AND ELY FLOW W OF 100W. DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ON THE S SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ACTING TO INDUCE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE ELY FLOW ALOFT W OF 100W. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WAS ALSO BEING INDUCED BY A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THE LOW LEVELS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID LATITUDES SUBTROPICS N OF 18N W OF 120W...EXTENDING FROM A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE E AND ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO INDUCE NWLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT N OF 23N. AS GEORGETTE WEAKENS AND LIFT OUT TO THE N...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT. MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICS E OF 134W WITH SEVERAL MONSOONAL LOWS SPINNING UP WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...ALL GENERALLY MOVING EASTWARD. SWLY WINDS ON THE S SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE AROUND 20 KT OVER THE WATERS FROM 08N TO TO THE TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 134W. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO NOTICED ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS FROM NEAR MANZANILLO E-SE TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGING ON THE S SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER E OF 105W FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SPREAD E INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN...WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP IN THE COMING DAYS. $$ STRIPLING