000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 110.3W OR 
ABOUT 30 MILES...45 KM N OF LA PAZ MEXICO AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING 
NNW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 
60 NM OF 24N110W. GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE N ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INLAND MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR 
29N111W EARLY WED NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
AND WTPZ32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 20N110W TO LOW PRES 
14N121W 1007 MB WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO A SECOND LOW 
PRES NEAR 12N132W 1010 MB WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO NEAR 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
S OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION ALONG 32N127W TO 
30N140W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED N OF 22N W OF 115W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AT 28N106W WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 22N124W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SE ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 16N92W WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 30N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 105W...INCLUDING OVER THE WEAKENING TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS SW MERGING WITH A 
BELT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS NOTICED FROM 05N TO 12N ACROSS 
THE AREA FROM 80W TO 140W.     

AT THE LOW LEVELS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS N 
OF 20N WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT 20 KT W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 
120W. AS GEORGETTE WEAKENS THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 
FT. A MONSOON TROUGH DOMINATES THE TROPICS E OF 130W WITH 
SURFACE LOWS SPINNING UP ALONG THE TROUGH AND MOVING EASTWARD.
WINDS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE AT 20 KT OVER THE WATERS FROM 
08N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 134W. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO 
NOTICED NEAR 13N95W.

$$
NELSON