000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
11N127W TO 10N140W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL E 
PACIFIC...EXTENDING FROM 17N105W TO 15N113W TO 14N120W TO 
11N125W...WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 93W 
AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W...LATEST SHIP...BUOY AND WINDSAT DATA DEPICT A WELL 
DEVELOPED MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY 15N...WITH WINDSAT 
DATA SHOWING 15 TO 20 KT SW WINDS BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ALONG 20N. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE 
SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...MAINLY E OF 107W. A SURFACE LOW 1007 
MB IS NOTED ON THE 12Z ANALYSIS NEAR 15N113W ALONG THE TROUGH 
AXIS. CONVECTION IS STRONGLY SHEARED IN THE E FLOW ALOFT S OF 
THE RIDGE. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN THIS AS A WEAK LOW 
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SPORADIC CONVECTION. LONG 
PERIOD SW SWELL WILL ADD TO LOCALLY DEVELOPED SEAS IN THE AREA 
OF THE 20 KT SW WINDS S OF MONSOON TROUGH TO PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 
12 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

W OF 110W...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO NW OF 
HAWAII. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 16N133W. FAIRLY 
DRY DEEP LAYER AIR PERSISTS N OF 15N. ONLY WEAK SHOWERS ARE 
NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA DUE TO THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR 
ALOFT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN