000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU SEP 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS FROM 16N97W TO 13N108W TO 12N119W TO 08N128W TO 11N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 128W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N113W TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N138W. W TO SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET PREVAILS N OF 26N TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGH VERTICAL SHEARING EFFECTS ARE FOUND S OF 8N ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. BUT A SWEET SPOT OF LIGHTER E WINDS IS LOCATED N OF 8N AND S OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. CURRENTLY A STRING OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE DEVELOPING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALL ALONG AN ACTIVE ITCZ AXIS IN ENHANCED SW MONSOON FLOW S OF 11N. SURFACE... 1021 MB HIGH PRES AT 29N136W EXTENDS RIDGE E TO NEAR 20N111W. WEAK COLD FRONT NW OF AREA APPROACHES BASIN PRESSING HIGH PRES AND INCREASING WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE DISSIPATES WITHIN 24 HRS. IR SAT IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N111W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW PRES CENTER NEARLY STATIONARY NEXT 1-2 DAYS AND DEEPENS IT WITH INCREASING SW TO W WINDS TO 25 KT IN ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MARINE... SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE ARE EXPECTED BY WW3 MODEL TO BUILD TO AROUND 13-14 FT AS SW MONSOON WINDS INTENSIFY. AREA OF HIGH SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK BY DAY 3-4 UNLESS TC DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. N PACIFIC SWELLS EXPECTED N OF 29N BY SUN. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161605 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU SEP 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS FROM 16N97W TO 13N108W TO 12N119W TO 08N128W TO 11N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 128W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N113W TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N138W. W TO SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET PREVAILS N OF 26N TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGH VERTICAL SHEARING EFFECTS ARE FOUND S OF 8N ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. BUT A SWEET SPOT OF LIGHTER E WINDS IS LOCATED N OF 8N AND S OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. CURRENTLY A STRING OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE DEVELOPING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALL ALONG AN ACTIVE ITCZ AXIS IN ENHANCED SW MONSOON FLOW S OF 11N. SURFACE... 1021 MB HIGH PRES AT 29N136W EXTENDS RIDGE E TO NEAR 20N111W. WEAK COLD FRONT NW OF AREA APPROACHES BASIN PRESSING HIGH PRES AND INCREASING WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE DISSIPATES WITHIN 24 HRS. IR SAT IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N111W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW PRES CENTER NEARLY STATIONARY NEXT 1-2 DAYS AND DEEPENS IT WITH INCREASING SW TO W WINDS TO 25 KT IN ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MARINE... SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE ARE EXPECTED BY WW3 MODEL TO BUILD TO AROUND 13-14 FT AS SW MONSOON WINDS INTENSIFY. AREA OF HIGH SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK BY DAY 3-4 UNLESS TC DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. N PACIFIC SWELLS EXPECTED N OF 29N BY SUN. $$ MUNDELL