000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161011
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU SEP 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 11N90W TO 12N104W TO 13N105W TO 08N128W TO 11N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 93W 
TO 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS FAR NE PORTION OF BASIN FROM 
32N116W SW TO 19N140W.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE AIR MASS WITHIN 8-10 DEGREES W OF 
AXIS.  ANTICYCLONE AT 24N115W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SW TO SECOND 
SMALLER GYRE AT 16N131W.  THIRD ANTICYCLONE...THIS ONE OVER 
MEXICO...EXTEND RIDGE E INTO GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING STRONG NE 
WINDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 16N ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INTO THE DEEP TROPICS...BUT SHEARING DEEP CONVECTION FROM 
DEVELOPING.   MOISTURE CONTINUE W ALONG ITCZ LATITUDES AWAY FROM 
SHEARING WINDS WHERE A STRING OF LOW PRES CENTERS ARE DEVELOPING 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB AT 29N140W EXTENDS RIDGE E TO 20N103W. 
WEAK COLD FRONT NW OF AREA APPROACHES BASIN PRESSING HIGH PRES 
AND INCREASING WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST.  RIDGE 
BREAKS DOWN AS HIGH PRES CENTER DISSIPATES WITHIN 24 HRS.  

GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE MEANDERS PRESENT LOW PRES CENTER AT 
11N111W AND DEEPENS IT WITH INCREASING SW TO W WINDS IN ITS 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS SPREADING N EXPECTED TO 
REACH AS FAR AS 16N.  LARGE SURF ALONG EXPOSED COASTS POSSIBLE 
DURING NEXT FEW DAYS AS SWELLS AS HIGH AS 12 FT MOVE IN.

$$
WALLY BARNES