000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150353
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 12N90W 10N101W 13N114W 10N125W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W-110W...WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 119W-122W...AND 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-128W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
133W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...
AN ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH
A RIDGE SW TO 20N126W. A MID/UPPER TROUGH W OF THE RIDGE FROM 
23N129W TO 16N137W IS MOVING W ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD 
FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED 
WITH A MODERATE SUBTROPICAL JET IS FOUND N OF 28N W OF 
125W...AND SWLY FLOW PREVAILS BETWEEN THE JET AND THE HIGH OVER 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW TROUGH 
BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND 
ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE ELY FLOW PREVAILS FROM 8N 
TO 19N AND E OF 130W...AND IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD TO AS 
FAR W AS 122W.

SURFACE...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS W OF THE REGION NEAR 29N146W WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING ESE TO 26N129W TO NEAR 23N117W. HIGH PRES COVERS
THE AREA N OF 18N AND W OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF
THE RIDGE IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 20 KT TO
PREVAIL WITHIN 120 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT
WITH THE GRADIENT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT AND EXTENT WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST N OF 26N. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON.
GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT LOW PRES POSSIBLY FORMING BETWEEN 107W AND
110W NEAR 11N THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW 
WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS S SEMICIRCLE ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT
PER LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.

MARINE...
CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD N THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD REACHING TO NEAR 16N. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE 
LARGE SURF ALONG EXPOSED COASTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEAS
BUILD TO THE RANGE OF 8 TO 12 FT FROM 6N TO 21N BETWEEN 96W AND 
120W BY THU AS THE ABOVE LOW PRES DEVELOPS WITHIN THE MONSOON
FLOW.

$$
AGUIRRE